Almost all pharmaceutical raw materials trace back to petrochemical origins, and recent oil and gas disruptions are now squeezing drug supply chains across Asia-Pacific. The Asian Development Bank warned in a new report that tighter supplies of active pharmaceutical ingredients and basic drug inputs are hitting manufacturers hard. Medicines across every category rely on petrochemical-derived inputs — including common painkillers like paracetamol and ibuprofen, which are synthesized using propylene, a crude oil derivative. Antibiotics, statins, insulin, and chemotherapy drugs also depend on these intermediates at various production stages.
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Even the delivery systems are exposed. Intravenous bags, syringes, nitrile gloves, and medical plastics all use polymers from oil and gas feedstocks. A 2011 study cited by the ADB found that 3{7729880385ace00763d744956af66a2dd6156639dea227c3bc209fe61f7ca481} of global petroleum production goes into pharmaceutical manufacturing. The same study concluded that almost all pharmaceutical raw materials ultimately trace back to petrochemical origins.
India and China sit at the center of the exposure
Asia-Pacific is uniquely vulnerable. India produces nearly half of the world’s generic medicines and about 65{7729880385ace00763d744956af66a2dd6156639dea227c3bc209fe61f7ca481} of essential vaccines. But it also imports roughly 40{7729880385ace00763d744956af66a2dd6156639dea227c3bc209fe61f7ca481} of its crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz, meaning any disruption to that shipping route directly affects the energy inputs needed for drug production. The ADB also flagged China, which is the largest global producer of pharmaceutical raw materials and APIs. The country imports more than one-third of these ingredients, with about 70{7729880385ace00763d744956af66a2dd6156639dea227c3bc209fe61f7ca481} of that supply coming from that nation, creating a tight interdependence between the two.
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As supply tightens, prices of these active pharmaceutical ingredients have already started to rise, the bank noted. That price pressure carries a secondary risk: counterfeit medicines. The World Health Organization estimates that more than 50{7729880385ace00763d744956af66a2dd6156639dea227c3bc209fe61f7ca481} of medicines purchased from illegal online pharmacies are fake. Authorities in that country, Cambodia, Pakistan, and Vietnam have already issued warnings on counterfeit drugs. Regulatory capacity varies sharply across the region, and weak enforcement increases the chance that substandard or falsified medicines enter supply chains during shortages.
What governments can do — and what they can’t
The bank outlined several policy options for governments trying to stabilize access. Those include defining essential medicines, setting price controls, suspending import duties and tariffs on active pharmaceutical ingredients and finished products, and applying short-term energy subsidies to pharmaceutical manufacturers during supply disruptions. Regulators can also increase post-market surveillance and inspections of both imported and domestically produced medicines. Health systems can issue guidance to providers and pharmacists on identifying and reporting falsified products.
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Primary care facilities in lower-income areas face higher exposure during disruptions, the report noted. Development agencies, the ADB said, can help countries manage pharmaceutical supply risks during energy shocks. But none of these options solve the underlying problem: almost every pill, syringe, and IV bag starts with oil.